Determinants of voter turnout in 2015 Tanzania general election: a case of morogoro municipality, Tanzania

  • Abstract
  • Keywords
  • References
  • PDF
  • Abstract

    Worldwide voters’ turnout shows a notable decline since the mid 1980s, this is a challenge to democratization process. A number of efforts have been in place to address this, still a great proportion of registered voters do not vote in the elections as revealed in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 General elections in Tanzania. This study was designed to assess the context specific determinants of voters’ turnouts in Tanzania general election in Morogoro municipality after all the efforts by various stakeholders to address low turn outs experienced in earlier elections. Specifically the study determined voters’ turnouts and analyzed motives for voting. A cross- sectional study design was employed. Questionnaire was used as a tool for data collection to gather both qualitative and quantitative information. Multistage sampling was employed. Data were collected from four randomly selected wards from Morogoro urban (purposively selected) in Morogoro region namely Kichangani, Tungi, Mazimbu and Mji Mpya where in each ward 60 individuals were drawn randomly. Data processing and analysis was done using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) computer software. Chi-square test indicates significant associations between marital status and voting (p = 0 .000), voters education and the likelihood of voting (p = 0.000) and access to information and the likelihood of voting (p = 0 .001). The motives for turning to vote in general election in the study area were leadership role towards development (22.5%), exercising democracy (17.5%), good policies of political parties and manifestos (20.0%) and achievement done by former leaders (15.0%), good promises made by candidates during campaigns (10.0%) and voted to avoid corrupt leaders (15.0%). The study recommends for provision of civic education programme to citizens through various means and rigorous campaigns to disclose candidates’ potentialities.



  • Keywords

    General Election; Voter Turnout; Tanzania; Determinants of Voter Turnout.

  • References

      [1] African Elections Database (2011) Elections in Tanzania. Available at African Elections Database. Visited on Sunday 21/10/2015 at 10.15 pm.

      [2] African Union (AU) (2014) African Union Election Observer Mission to the 7th May 2014 National and Provincial Elections to the Republic of South Africa Preliminary Statement. Accessed 4 November 2015. . - See more at: | Rural Reporters.

      [3] Bailey KD (1994) Methods of social research. (4th ed.). New York: The Free Press.

      [4] Beetham D (2004) the Quality of Democracy: Freedom as the Foundation. Journal of Democracy, Vol. 15 No. 4, 61-75.

      [5] Bjornlund E C (2004) Beyond Free and Fair: Monitoring Elections and Building Democracy, Washington D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press; Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press,. 365pp.

      [6] Chinsinga B (2006) Voter apathy in Malawi: a critical appraisal. Centre for Multiparty Democracy – Malawi. 31pp.

      [7] Denny K & Doyle O (2008) Political Interest, Cognitive Ability and Personality: Determinants of Voter Turnout in Britain. British Journal of Political Science, Vol.38, Issue Number (02)291 – 310.

      [8] Downs A (1957) An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row. 116pp.

      [9] Dyck JJ & Gimpel JG (2005) Distance, Turnout, and the Convenience of Votingn. Social Science Quarterly, Volume 86, Number 3, pp 531-548.

      [10] Fain J (1993) Determinants of Voters Participation: Simulation Results Public Choice. (77) 823-834. Huwer Academic Publisher.

      [11] Ferrini L (2012) why is Turnout at Elections declining Across the Democratic World? E-International Relations (E-IR) Site visited on 7th November 2015.

      [12] Goodwin-Gill GS (2006) Free and Fair Election: New Expanded Edition (2nd ed) Interparliamentary Union 2006, Sadag Imprimerie: Bellegarde – France. 229pp.

      [13] Hansford TG & Gomez BT (2010) Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout. American Political Science Review Vol. 104, No. (2)268-288.

      [14] International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) (2014) Arab Republic of Egypt: Election for President. Accessed 5 November 2015.

      [15] International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) (2004) Participation and Turnout: Relating Knowledge and Tools to the Practical Questions facing Democratic Reformers. International IDEA, Stockholm. 8pp.

      [16] International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) (2007) Political Parties in Africa: Challenges for Sustained Multiparty Democracy, International IDEA, Stockholm. 144pp.

      [17] International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) (2011). Voter turnout data for Tanzania, United Republic of. Stockholm, Sweden. Site visited on 6th November 2015.

      [18] Kothari CR (2004) Research Methodology: Method and Techniques (2nd edition). New Delhi: New Age International. 418pp.

      [19] Ladner A (2009) What Explains Electoral Turnout in Swiss Municipalities? Working Paper no 2/2009 presented from 10 t0 12 /09/2009 5th conference in Potsdam conference

      [20] LeDuc L (2003) The European Constitution Referendums: What We Already Know. Department of Political Science, University of Toronto,Toronto CANADA. 16pp.

      [21] Markowitz D (2009) the Impact of Civics Education on the Attitudes, Behaviors and Disposition of Youth. 18pp.

      [22] Matsusaka JG (1993) Explaining Voter Turnout Patterns: An Information Theory. Public Choice Vol. 84, No. 1/2 (Jul., 1995), pp. 91-117.

      [23] Meyer-Resende M (2011) International Consensus: Essential Elements of Democracy. Democracy Reporting International (DRI), Berlin / Germany. 16 pp.

      [24] Mills G (2002) Democratic Participation and Political Communication in Systems of Multi-level Governance. Available at Visited on 02/06/20135.

      [25] Mozambique New Agency (MNA) (2014) AIM Reports. October 31, 2014. Accessed 4 November 2015: . - See more at: | Rural Reporters

      [26] Muhanga M & R Andrew (2015)“Who Votes and Why? An Empirical Analysis Reflecting the 2015 General Election in Tanzania”. Journal of Continuing Education and Extension (JCEE) Volume 6 (2): 990-1008.

      [27] Muhanga M (2017) Attitude of Voters Towards Elections in Morogoro Municipality: A Reflection on 2015 General Election in Tanzania, Journal of Public Policy and Administration . Vol. 1, No. 2, , pp. 56-64. doi: 10.11648/j.jppa.20170102.12

      [28] Murphy T & Freyman J (2009) why do People Vote? Examining the Determinants of Electoral Participation in the World’s Democracies

      [29] Mwinyi MO & Kayunze KA (2014) Civic Education Significantly Associated with Turnout in General Elections in Morogoro Urban Constituency, Tanzania. Research on Humanities and Social Sciences Vol.4, No.13, 68-76.

      [30] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Office of Chief Government Statistician (OCGS) (2012) the 2012 Population and Housing Census (PHC) for United Republic of Tanzania: Population Distribution by Administrative Areas. 12pp.

      [31] National Election Commission –NEC (2015) Voter Turnout for 2015 General Election. Tanzania National Election Commission. Dar es Salaam: Tanzania

      [32] National Election Commission-NEC (2010) Voter Turnout for 2010 General Election. Tanzania National Election Commission. Dar es Salaam: Tanzania

      [33] National Election Commission-NEC (2010) Voter Turnout for 2010 General Election. National Election Commission of Tanzania.

      [34] National Election Commission-NEC (2005) Voter Turnout for 2005 General Election. National Election Commission of Liberia.

      [35] Niemi RG & Herbert FW eds. (2001) Controversies in Voting Behaviour, 4th ed. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.

      [36] Norris P, Coma FM & Grömping, M (2015) the Year in Elections, 2014. THE WORLD’S FLAWED AND FAILED CONTESTS. University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. 50pp.

      [37] Pintor RL, Gratschew M & Sullivan K. (n.d). Voter Turnout Rates from a Comparative Perspective Voter Turnout Since 1945 A Global Report. 42 pp.

      [38] Settle RF & Abrams BA (n.d). Determinants of Voter Participation: A More General Model.

      [39] Tairo P (2011) Should Tanzania Enact a Compulsory Voting Law? The Citizen. Tuesday, 11 October 2011. Available at www.thecitizen.Co.Tz › MagazinesPolitical Platform. Visited on 18/10/2014 at 10:15 pm.

      [40] TEMCO (2006) The 2005 Elections in Tanzania Mainland: Report of the Tanzania Election Monitoring Committee, Dar es Salaam: TEMCO.

      [41] TEMCO. (2010). An Interim Report on Performance of Tanzania’s 2010 General Elections in Tanzania. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania the Work of the Organizations.

  • The PDF file you selected should load here if your Web browser has a PDF reader plug-in installed (for example, a recent version of Adobe Acrobat Reader).

    If you would like more information about how to print, save, and work with PDFs, Highwire Press provides a helpful Frequently Asked Questions about PDFs.

    Alternatively, you can download the PDF file directly to your computer, from where it can be opened using a PDF reader. To download the PDF, click the Download link above.




Article ID: 10201
DOI: 10.14419/jsc.v1i1.10201

Copyright © 2012-2015 Science Publishing Corporation Inc. All rights reserved.