Total asset prediction of the large Indonesian bank using adaptive artificial neural network back-propagation

  • Authors

    • Fariyanti .
    • Iskandar .
    • Rheo Malani
    • Bedi Suprapty
    2018-03-05
    https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.2.12737
  • net total assets, net income, ROA, AR model, MISO-ARX model, Adaptive NNBP
  • Abstract

    The bank is a type of company that acts as the executor of monetary policy and as a guarantor of the stability of the financial system of a country. Total assets are an important aspect for a bank to generate net income. Return on Assets (ROA) is a profitability ratio to measure the ability of a bank in generating profits with all investments owned. This study predicts the total assets of the largest banks in Indonesia, referring to the Indonesia Stock Exchange data from 2005 to 2016. The time series data model used is Autoregressive (AR) model and Multi Input Single Output (MISO) Autoregressive with exogenous input (ARX) model. Adaptive Artificial Neural Network Back-propagation (Adaptive ANN-BP) is used as an approximation model of both models.

     

     

  • References

    1. style='font-size:8.0pt'>
    2. style='mso-spacerun:yes'> ADDIN EN.REFLIST
    3. field-separator'>[1] G. Bandyopadhyay, "Modeling NPA Time Series Data in Selected Public Sector Banks in India with Semi Parametric Approach," International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research (IJSER), vol. 4, pp. 1876-1889, (2013).

      [2] A. S. Ahmar, S. Guritno, A. Rahman, I. Minggi, M. Arif Tiro, M. Kasim Aidid, et al., "Modeling Data Containing Outliers using ARIMA Additive Outlier (ARIMA-AO)," Journal of Physics: Conf. Series, vol. 954, 2018.

      [3] A. Rahman and A. S. Ahmar, "Forecasting of primary energy consumption data in the United States: A comparison between ARIMA and Holter-Winters models," in AIP Conference Proceedings vol. 1885, ed, 2017.

      [4] A. S. Ahmar, "A Comparison of α-Sutte Indicator and ARIMA Methods in Renewable Energy Forecasting in Indonesia," International Journal of Engineering & Technology, vol. 7, pp. 9-11, 2018.

      [5] S. Al Wadi, "Improving Volatility Risk Forecasting Accuracy in Industry Sector," International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, vol. 2017, pp. 1-6, (2017).

      [6] A. Noreen, R. Asif, S. Nisar, and N. Qayyum, "Model Building and Forecasting of Bank Credit to Public and Private Sector," Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance, vol. 5, pp. 73-77, (2017).

      [7] E. F. O., "The Implications of Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistics in Data Analysis in Marketing Research," International Journal of Humanities and Social Science vol. 5, pp. 74-83, (2015).

      [8] A. Dingli and K. S. Fournier, "Financial Time Series Forecasting - A Machine Learning Approach," Machine Learning and Applications: An International Journal, vol. 4, pp. 11-27, (2017).

      [9] P. Enyindah and O. U. C., "A Neural Network Approach to Financial Forecasting," International Journal of Computer Applications (IJCA), vol. 135, pp. 28-32, (2016).

      [10] E. U. A. Gaffar, "Prediction of Regional Economic Growth in East Kalimantan using Genetic Algorithm," International Journal of Computing and Informatics (IJCANDI), vol. 1, pp. 58-67, May, (2016).

      [11] A. Graham and E. P. Mishra, "Time series analysis model to forecast rainfall for Allahabad region," Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry, vol. 6, pp. 1418-1421, (2017).

      [12] C.-F. Huang and H.-C. Li, "An Evolutionary Method for Financial Forecasting in Microscopic High-Speed Trading Environment," Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, vol. 2017, pp. 1-18, (2017).

      [13] M. Khairalla, X. Ning, and N. T. AL-Jallad, "Hybrid Forecasting Scheme for Financial Time-Series Data using Neural Network and Statistical Methods," (IJACSA) International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, vol. 8, pp. 319-327, (2017).

      [14] S. Mukherjee and S. Galeshchuk, "Deep Learning for Predictions in Emerging Currency Markets," pp. 681-686, 2017.

      [15] M. B. Patel and S. R. Yalamalle, "Stock Price Prediction Using Artificial Neural Network," International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology (IJIRSET), vol. 3, pp. 13755-13762, (2014).

      [16] L. D. Persio and O. Honchar, "Recurrent neural networks approach to the financial forecast of Google assets," INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTERS IN SIMULATION vol. 11, pp. 7-13, (2017).

      [17] R. Pradhan, "Z Score Estimation for Indian Banking Sector," International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, vol. 5, pp. 516-520, (2014).

      [18] B. Prasad and K. Molugaram, "Development of mode choice models of a trip maker for Hyderabad metropolitan city," International Journal of Engineering & Technology (IJET), vol. 7, pp. 1-7, (2018).

      [19] J. Vrbka, "Predicting Future GDP Development by Means of Artificial Intelligence," Littera Scripta, vol. 9, pp. 154-167, (2016).

      [20] T. Wang, "Forecast of Economic Growth by Time Series and Scenario Planning Method—A Case Study of Shenzhen," Modern Economy, vol. 07, pp. 212-222, (2016).

      [21] K. Yang and S. Liu, "A Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Non-Parametric Error Correction," International Journal of Multimedia and Ubiquitous Engineering, vol. 10, pp. 329-340, (2015).

      [22] Haviluddin and R. Alfred, "A Genetic-Based Backpropagation Neural Network for Forecasting in Time-Series Data," in The 2015 International Conference on Science in Information Technology (ICSITech 2015), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2015, pp. xxx-xxx.

      [23] M. H. Beale, M. T. Hagan, and H. B. Demuth. ((2015)). Neural Network ToolboxTM MATLAB R2015a – User’s Guide.

      [24] A. A. Abdurehman and S. Hacilar, "The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Inflation: An Empirical Study of Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues (IJEFI), vol. 6, pp. 1454-1459, (2016).

      [25] K. Kwon, W.-S. Cho, and J. Na, "ARIMAX and ARX Models with Social Media Information to Predict Unemployment Rate," Journal of Advanced Management Science, pp. 401-404, (2016).

      [26] F. Piltan, S. TayebiHaghighi, and N. B. Sulaiman, "Comparative Study between ARX and ARMAX System Identification," International Journal of Intelligent Systems and Applications, vol. 9, pp. 25-34, (2017).

      [27] I. S. Exchange, "LQ45 Index Constituents for the period of February – July 2013," I. S. Exchange, Ed., ed: Indonesia Stock Exchange, (2013).

      [28] I. S. Exchange, "LQ45 Index Constituents for the period of February – July 2014," R. a. D. D.-I. S. Exchange, Ed., ed: Indonesia Stock Exchange, (2014).

      [29] I. S. Exchange, "LQ45 Index Constituents for the period of February – July 2015," I. S. Exchange, Ed., ed: Indonesia Stock Exchange, (2015).

      [30] I. S. Exchange, "LQ45 Index Constituents for the period of February – July 2016," I. S. Exchange, Ed., ed: Indonesia Stock Exchange, (2016).

      [31] I. S. Exchange, "LQ45 Index Constituents for the period of February – July 2017," I. S. Exchange, Ed., ed: Indonesia Stock Exchange, (2017).

    4. mso-fareast-font-family:Batang;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:
    5. KO;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>
  • Downloads

  • How to Cite

    ., F., ., I., Malani, R., & Suprapty, B. (2018). Total asset prediction of the large Indonesian bank using adaptive artificial neural network back-propagation. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(2.2), 75-79. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.2.12737

    Received date: 2018-05-12

    Accepted date: 2018-05-12

    Published date: 2018-03-05