A hybrid elman neural network predictor for time series prediction
-
2018-04-18 https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.20.12799 -
Elman Neural Networks, Time Series Prediction, Solar Sun Spot Numbers, Artificial Neural Networks. -
Abstract
Artificial Neural Networks have become popular in the world of prediction and forecasting due to their nonlinear nonparametric adaptive-learning property. They become an important tool in data analysis and data mining applications. Elman neural network due to its recurrent nature and dynamic processing capabilities can perform the prediction process with a good range of accuracy. In this paper an Elman recurrent Neural Network is hybridised with a time delay called a tap delay line for time series prediction process to improve its performance. The Elman neural network with the time delay inputs is trained tested and validated using the solar sun spot time series data that contains the monthly mean sunspot numbers for a 240 year period having 2899 data values. The results confirm that the proposed Elman network hybridised with time delay inputs can predict the time series with more accurately and effectively than the existing methods.
Â
Â
-
References
[1] Ardalani-Farsa, M., & Zolfaghari, S.Chaotic time series prediction with residual analysis method using hybrid Elman–NARX neural networks. Neurocomputing, 73(13), 2540-2553,201
[2] Ajabshirizadeh A, N. Masoumzadeh Jouzdani and Shahram Abbassi , Neural network prediction of solar cycle 24, Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics. 2011 Vol. 11 No. 4, 491–496
[3] Bharath Chandra Mummadisetty, Astha Puri, Ershad Sharifahmadian, Shahram Latifi , A Hybrid Method for Compression of Solar Radiation Data Using Neural Networks, International Journal of Communications, Network and System Sciences, 2015, 8, 217-228.
[4] Brunelli U. , V. Piazza, L. Pignato, F. Sorbello, S. Vitabile, Three hours ahead prevision of SO2 pollutant concentration using an Elman neural based forecaster, Building and Environment 43 (2008) 304–314.
[5] Chandra .R , Competition and Collaboration in Cooperative Coevolution of Elman Recurrent Neural Networks for Time-Series Prediction, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems, vol. 26, no. 12, pp. 3123-3136, Dec. 2015.
[6] Chuanjin Jiang and Fugen Song, Sunspot Forecasting by Using Chaotic Timeseries Analysis and NARX Network, Journal of Computers, VOL. 6, 2011, 1424-1429
[7] ELMAN, J. L. Finding Structure in Time. Cognitive Science 14, 2 (1990), 179-211.
[8] Harwinder Kaur & Dalwinder Singh Salaria, Bayesian Regularization Based Neural Network Tool for Software Effort Estimation, Global Journal of Computer Science and Technology Neural & Artificial Intelligence Volume 13 Issue 2, 2013,44-50.
[9] Hossam Adel Zaqoot, Ahsanullah Baloch, Abdul Khalique Ansari, and Mukhtiar Ali Unar , Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Ph in Seawater Along Gaza Beach, Applied Artificial Intelligence, 24:667–679,2001, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC, ISSN: 0883-9514 print :1087-6545.
[10] Jujie Wanga, Wenyu Zhangb, Yaning Lic, Jianzhou Wangc, Zhangli Dangb , Forecasting wind speed using empirical mode decomposition and Elman neural network, Applied Soft Computing , Volume 23, October 2014, Pages 452–459
[11] Junru GAO, Yuqing Wang, The Research on the Methods of Diagnosing the Steam Turbine Based on the Elman Neural Network, Journal of Software Engineering and Applications, 2013, 6, 87-90.
[12] MarÃa C. Palancar, José M. Aragón, José S. Torrecilla, pH-Control System Based on Artificial Neural Networks, Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research 1998 37 (7), 2729-2740
[13] Moghaddamnia.A , R.Remesan , M.HassanpourKashani , M.Mohammadi , D.Han , J.Piri , Comparison of LLR, MLP, Elman, NNARX and ANFIS Models—with a case study in solar radiation estimation, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 71 (2009) 975–982.
[14] Mohana Sundaram.N ,S. N. Sivanandam and R.Subha, Elman Neural Network Mortality Predictor for Prediction of Mortality Due to Pollution, International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 3 (2016) pp 1835-1840.
[15] Mohana Sundaram N, Renupriya V ,Nonlinear Predictive Model of Chemical Process System Using an ElmanNeural Network , International Journal of Engineering Science and Computing, DOI 10.4010/2016.504 , ISSN 2321 3361, Volume 2016, Issue February, pp 2069-2073.
[16] Nicolus K. Rotich, Jari Backman, Lassi Linnanen and Perfilieve Daniil, Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks, Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems, 2014, Volume 2, Issue 2, pp 174-190
[17] Qiuwang Wang, Gongnan Xie, Ming Zeng, Laiqin Luo, Prediction of heat transfer rates for shell and tube heat exchangers by artificial neural networks approach, Journal of Thermal Science 2006, 15(3):257-262.
[18] Rohitash Chandra and MengjieZhang, Cooperative coevolution of Elman recurrent neural networks for chaotic time series prediction, Neurocomputing 86(2012)116–123.
[19] Shilpi Rani and Dr. Falguni Parekh, Predicting Reservoir Water Level Using Artificial Neural Network , International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology , Vol. 3, Issue 7, July 2014, ISSN: 2319-8753.
[20] Tamer Khatib, AzahMohamed, K.Sopian and M.Mahmoud, Assessment of Artificial Neural Networks for Hourly Solar Radiation Prediction, International Journal of Photoenergy, Volume 2012, Article ID 946890, pages 1-7.
[21] Zhihang Tang, Rongjun Li, an Improved Neural Network Model and Its Applications, Journal of Information & Computational Science 8: 10 (2011), 1881–1888.
-
Downloads
-
How to Cite
Mohana Sundaram, N., & N. Sivanandam, S. (2018). A hybrid elman neural network predictor for time series prediction. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(2.20), 159-163. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.20.12799Received date: 2018-05-14
Accepted date: 2018-05-14
Published date: 2018-04-18