Population prediction of purwanegara village, Indonesia using modified logistic model with migration factor

  • Authors

    • Diandra Chika Fransisca Department of Information Technology, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Komputer Yos Sudarso Purwokerto
    • Padosroha Marbun Department of Information Technology, Universitas Bina Nusantra
    2018-08-27
    https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.16547
  • Logistic Model, Migration, Intrinsic Growth, Carrying Capacity of Environment, Population.

  • Abstract

    Population growth model is a widely been used model to do an estimation and forecasting towards the population of peoples, animals, bac-teria and even in economics growth. Many studies have been carried out on population growth model concerning the factors of birth, death and carrying capacity in order to predict the number of population at certain area. From these studies there is only one study involved the constant value factor of migration as an input in the logistic model. Therefore contradicting with the above modified logistic model, in this study logistic model is modified by adding a migration factor as a function of population. This function takes into account the migration and the interaction between peoples that is limited to the carrying capacity of the environment. This model can be solved qualitatively using the analysis of equilibrium point and quantitatively using the separable variables method. This modified logistic model with migration factor has been applied in the population prediction of Purwanegara village in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Throughout the results, the modified logistic model with migration factor as a function of population gives a better result for population prediction of Purwanegara village in Central Java Province, Indonesia compared with logistic model.

     

     

  • References

    1. [1] National Geographic. (2015). 15 Tahun Lagi, Jumlah Populasi Dunia akan Capai 8, 5 Miliar. Retrieved March 3, 2016 from http://nationalgeographic.co.id/2015/07/15-tahun-lagi-jumlah-populasi-dunia-akan-capai-8-5-miliar

      [2] Salladien. Strategi Pembangunan Kependudukan dan Kebijakan yang Ditempuh di Era Global, pp 3. Malang : Universitas Negeri Malang, (2013).

      [3] Mantra, I. B. Demografi Umum, Jakarta: Pustaka Belajar, (2003).

      [4] Borrelli, R and Coleman, C. S. Differential Equation, a Modelling Approach. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc, (1987).

      [5] Edwards, C. H and Penney, D. E. Elementary Differential Equations, Sixth Edition. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc, (2008).

      [6] Peleg, M., Corradini, M. G and Normand, M. D. The logistic (Verhulst) model for sigmoid microbial growth curves revisited. Food Research International, Vol. 40, No. 7, (2007), pp. 808-818. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodres.2007.01.012.

      [7] Ramos, R. A. Logistic Function as a Forecasting Model: It is Application to Business and Economics. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 2, No, 3, (2013), pp. 29-36.

      [8] Koyama, K and Kikuzawa, K. Is whole-plant photosynthetic rate proportional to leaf area? A test of scalings and a logistic equation by leaf demography census. The American Naturalist, Vol. 173, No. 5, (2009), pp. 640-649. https://doi.org/10.1086/597604.

      [9] Ramos, R. A. Logistic Function as a Forecasting Model: It is Application to Business and Economics. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 3, (2013), pp. 29-36.

      [10] Sari, P. M. Prediksi Jumlah Penduduk di Kelurahan Purwanegara, Kecamatan Purwokerto Utara Menggunakan Model Logistik. Master of Thesis, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, 2014.

      [11] Meyer, P. S and Ausubel J. H. Carrying Capacity: A Model with Logistically Varying Limits. Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 61, No. 3, (1999), pp. 209-214. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00022-0.

      [12] Laham, M. F., Krisnarajah, I. S and Shariff. J. M. Fish Harvesting Management Strategies Using Logistic Growth Model. Journal of Sains Malaysiana, Vol. 41, No. 2, (2012), pp. 171-177.

      [13] Rakhim, A. A. Model Logistik dengan Migrasi dan Aplikasinya pada Data Penduduk Kelurahan Purwanegara Kecamatan Purwokerto Utara. Master of Thesis, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, 2015.

      [14] Campbell, N. A and Reece, J. B. Biology Seventh Edition. San Fransisco: Pearson Benjamin Cummings, (2005).

      [15] Rusli, S. Pengantar Ilmu Kependudukan. Jakarta: LP3SE, (2015).

      [16] Kreyzig, E. Advanced Engineering Mathematics Tenth Edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons, (2011).

      [17] Wang, J., McCue, S. W., and Simpson, J. Extended Logistic Growth Model For Heterogeneous Populations. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol 445, (2018), pp. 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.02.027.

      Sun, H., Nguyen, T., Luan, Y and Jiang, J. Classified Mixed Logistic Model Prediction. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Vol 168, (2018), pp. 63-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2018.06.004

  • Downloads

  • How to Cite

    Chika Fransisca, D., & Marbun, P. (2018). Population prediction of purwanegara village, Indonesia using modified logistic model with migration factor. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(3), 1962-1969. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.16547

    Received date: 2018-07-30

    Accepted date: 2018-08-05

    Published date: 2018-08-27