Demographic Projections for India: Past, Present and Future

 
 
 
  • Abstract
  • Keywords
  • References
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  • Abstract


    The growth or development of a country mainly depends on the present and future population scenario. Population projections help in the growth of the nation in various directions. Predicting the human fertility and mortality is very difficult, particularly when we are concentrating farther time. Various National, International and some individual demographers made projections for the entire nation and some parts of the country. The estimates of the population projections changes as and when new information added to the existing values. The perspective population growth and its impact were discussed by Visaria and Visaria, 1996 and noticed that population projections vary based on the parameters considered in their models.

     

    In our present work, by considering the 2001 India’s Census data, Registrar General (1996)[14], a new population projection of the country are estimated by allowing the age arrangement of the population. The mortality estimates of the whole country made by considering the impact of HIV / AIDS. Cohort component method was used for the projections from 2001 to 2051. Using the Sample Registration System (SRS) figures of 2001 census, state level figures are generated. Only two variants namely, average and high are used for making the population projections.

     

     


  • Keywords


    Population projections, Census, cohort Component method; Exponential Growth Method; Logistic Growth Method.

  • References


      [1] Agarwala S.N. (1966): Some problems of India’s Population, Bombay: Vohra & Co. Cassen Robert H. and Tim Dyson (1976): “New Population Projections for India, Population and Development Review, Vol.2 No.1 March.

      [2] Chaudhary, M. (1986): Poparative study of India’s Population Projections Based on the 1981 Census, Demography India, Vol. 15, No.1

      [3] Dyson T. and Amresh Hanchate (2000): “India’s Demographic and Food Prospects: State Level Analysis”, Economic and Political Weekly, November 11, Vol. 35, No. 46.

      [4] Government of India (1996): Population Projection of India and States, Registrar General of India, New Delhi.

      [5] Natrajan K.S. (1982): Population Projections in Population of India: Country Monograph Series No.10, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, New York.

      [6] Natarajan, K S and V Jayachandran (2001): ‘Population Growth in 21st Century India’ in K Srinivasan and M Vlassoff (ed), Population–Development Nexus in India, New Delhi: Tata McGraw- Hill, New Delhi.

      [7] Natrajan K.S. and V. Jayachandran (2000): Population Growth in 21st Century India, Population Foundation of India, New Delhi.

      [8] Visaria L. and Praveen Visaria (1996): Perspective Population Growth and Policy Options for India 1991-2001, New York, The Population Council.

      [9] United Nations (1999): The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS, ESA/P/WP152,

      [10] United Nations (1982): Model Life Table for Developing Countries, New York

      [11] United Nations (1996): World Population Prospects (The Revision), Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, New York

      [12] United Nations (1998): World Population Prospects (The Revision), Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, New York

      [13] United Nations (2002): World Population Prospects (The Revision), Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, New York

      [14] Registrar General (1996): ‘Population Projections for India and the States: 1996-2016’, Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, Office of the Registrar General of India, New Delhi.(2006)


 

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Article ID: 18293
 
DOI: 10.14419/ijet.v7i3.31.18293




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