Investigating the ppp theory and long-run estimates for five Asian countries
-
2018-11-30 https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.28.22384 -
Abstract
The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) theory posits that the conversion rate between two currencies ought to be the same as the ratio of the total price levels between two currencies. Using monthly recent panel data for five Asian countries, from the period 1996M01-2016M08, the paper examined the PPP theory by utilizing robust methods of panel unit root and cointegration (Pesaran and Westerlund) tests that put into consideration cross-sectional dependence. The panel unit root test results show that all the variables considered are not stationary at levels but stationary at first difference (all variables are I(1)), because of that, the cointegration test was carried out. Results showed the presence of long-run relationship among the variables implying that the purchasing power parity theory exists in the long-run. Furthermore, the long-run relationships were estimated using the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and the mean group (MG) estimators. Surprisingly, all these estimators gave similar results, they showed that the domestic prices cause depreciation while the foreign prices cause appreciation of the nominal exchange rates in the five Asian countries. Generally, the effect of nominal exchange rate appreciation is more than depreciation in the five Asian countries.
-
References
[1] Choji NM, & Sek SK (2017a). Testing for purchasing power parity in 21 African countries using several unit root tests. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1830, 080015-1-080015-7. http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4980999
[2] Beirne J, (2010). International exchange rate dynamics and purchasing power parity. PhD Thesis, Brunel University, UK. Retrieved from http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/4246
[3] Hoque A, & Banerjee R, (2012). Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold for Garment Export-Oriented Developing Countries? Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 65, 8–13. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.11.083
[4] Andrews D, & Zivot E, (1992). Further evidence on the Great Crash, the oil price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251–270.
[5] Clemente J, Montañés A, & Reyes M, (1998). Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59, 175–182. http://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(98)00052-4
[6] Emirmahmutoglu F, & Omay T, (2014). Reexamining the PPP hypothesis: A nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test. Economic Modelling, 40, 184–190. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.03.028
[7] Jiang C, Bahmani-Oskooee M, & Chang T, (2015). Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity in OECD. Applied Economics, 47, 4323–4334. http://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1026592
[8] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Chang T, & Lee K.-C, (2014). Purchasing Power Parity in the BRICS and the MIST Countries : Sequential Panel Selection Method. Review of Economics & Finance, 4, 1–12.
[9] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Chang T, & Lee K.-C, (2015). Panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test and PPP in Africa. Applied Economics Letters, 23, 554–558. http://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1088132
[10] Chortareas G, & Kapetanios G, (2009). Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33, 390–404. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.08.010
[11] Bahmani-Oskooee M, & Kones A, (2014). Real and nominal effective exchange rates of African countries during 1971Q1–2012Q4. Applied Economics, 46, 1961–1984. http://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.889805
[12] Kutan AM, & Zhou S, (2015). PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates. Economic Systems, 39, 358–366. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.12.001
[13] Jiang C, Jian N, Liu T-Y, & Su C-W, (2016). Purchasing power parity and real exchange rate in Central Eastern European countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 44, 349–358. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.02.006
[14] Caner M, & Hansen BE, (2001). Threshold Autoregression with a Near Unit Root. Econometrica, 69, 1555–1596.
[15] Robertson R, Kumar A, & Dutkowsky DH, (2014). Weak-form and strong-form purchasing power parity between the US and Mexico: A panel cointegration investigation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 42, 241–262. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.08.005
[16] Pedroni P, (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 653–670. http://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1653
[17] Wallace FH, (2013). Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity. Review of World Economics, 149, 779–802. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-013-0165-2
[18] Im KS, Lee J, & Enders W, (2008). Cointegration Tests Using Instrumental Variables with an Example of the U . K . Demand for Money. Cba.Ua.Edu, 35487, 1–44.
[19] Choji NM, & Sek SK, (2017b). Testing for purchasing power parity in the long-run for ASEAN-5. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1830, 080017-1-080017-7. http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4980999
[20] Pedroni P, (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests With an Application To the Ppp Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625. http://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
[21] Pesaran MH, (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Alpplied Econometrics, 22, 265–312. http://doi.org/10.1002/jae
[22] Baltagi BH, (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. http://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
[23] Mehmet S, Ekrem AY, & Gokcen O, (2014). Cross Sectional Dependence and Coitegration Analysis among the GDP-Foreign Direct Investment and Aggregate Credits : Evidence from Selected Developing Countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review Journal, 4, 1485–1501.
[24] Westerlund J, (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69, 709–748. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
[25] Pesaran MH, (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1229(August).
-
Downloads
-
How to Cite
Choji, N. M., & Sek, S. K. (2018). Investigating the ppp theory and long-run estimates for five Asian countries. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(4.28), 26-29. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.28.22384Received date: 2018-11-30
Accepted date: 2018-11-30
Published date: 2018-11-30