A Comparative Study of Best-Fit Algorithms for the Risk Assessment of Weather Conditions in Electricity Based on Iot

  • Authors

    • Saraswathi Sivamani
    • Vasanth Ragu
    • Myeongbae Lee
    • Kyongryong Cho
    • Sungeon Cho
    • Changsun Shin
    • Jangwoo Park
    • Yongyun Cho
    https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v8i1.4.26316
  • Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Addictive Model, Linear Mixed Effects Model, Model-fitting.
  • Three statistical methods, Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Linear Mixed Effects Model (LME) are used to analyze the relationship between the electric pole vibration and the weather conditions. All the models were fitted individually to the respective weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, wind speed and wind direction. All the information from the sensors are processed and analyzed, where the pitch and the roll of the electric pole reveals the influence of the temperature over the respective data. Therefore, the model is fitted with the respect to the weather conditions obtained from different source and platform. In order to fit the model accurately, all three models implemented to pitch and roll, along with the weather conditions. The results show that the best model among the three is Generalized Additive Model, which is identified using AIC value, BIC value and the deviance explained. For more deep understanding and clearance, the residual fit is performed and the model validation is tested for normality using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test. With the best-fit model, the risk assessment becomes more reliable, with either, minor or major causalities.

     

     
  • References

    1. [1] H. Fraser, “The importance of an active demand side in the electricity industry,†The Electricity Journal, vol.14, no.9, pp.52-73, 2001.

      [2] J. Stern, “Electricity and telecommunications regulatory institutions in small and developing countries,†Utilities Policy, vol.9, no.3, pp.131-157, 2000.

      [3] H.D.Kutzbach, 2000. “Trends in power and machinery,†Journal of Agricultural Engineering Research, vol.7, no.3, pp.237-247, 2000.

      [4] A.S. Szklo, J.B.Soares, and M.T.Tolmasquim, “Energy consumption indicators and CHP technical potential in the Brazilian hospital sector,†Energy Conversion and Management, vol.45, no.13, pp.2075-2091, 2004..

      [5] K. Kim, and Y.Cho, “Estimation of power outage costs in the industrial sector of South Korea,†Energy Policy, vol.101, pp.236-245, 2017.

      [6] W. Li, Risk assessment of power systems: models, methods, and applications, 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons, 2014.

      [7] Y. Wang, C. Chen, J. Wang, and R. Baldick, “Research on resilience of power systems under natural disasters—A review,†IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.31, no.2, pp.1604-1613, 2016.

      [8] D. Zhu, D. Cheng, R.P. Broadwater, and C. Scirbona, “Storm modeling for prediction of power distribution system outages,†Electric power systems research, vol.77, no.8, pp.973-979, 2007.

      [9] H. Liu, R.A. Davidson, D.V. Rosowsky, and J.R. Stedinger, “Negative binomial regression of electric power outages in hurricanes†Journal of infrastructure systems, vol.11, no.4, pp.258-267, 2005.

      [10] H. Liu, R.A. Davidson, and T.V. Apanasovich, “Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms,†Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol.93, no.6, pp.897-912, 2008

      [11] H. Liu, R.A. Davidson and T.V. Apanasovich, “Statistical forecasting of electric power restoration times in hurricanes and ice storms,†IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.22, no.4, pp.2270-2279, 2007.

      [12] S.D. Guikema, S.M Quiring, and S.R. Han, “Prestorm estimation of hurricane damage to electric power distribution systems,†Risk analysis, vol.30, no.12, pp.1744-1752, 2010.

      [13] M. Ouyang, and L. Dueñas-Osorio, “Multi-dimensional hurricane resilience assessment of electric power systems,†Structural Safety, vol. 48, pp.15-24, 2014.

      [14] R.J. Campbell, “Weather-related power outages and electric system resiliency,". Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Aug. 2012.

      [15] S. Madanat, and W.H.W. Ibrahim, “Poisson regression models of infrastructure transition probabilities,†Journal of Transportation Engineering, vol.121, no.3, pp.267-272, 1995.

      [16] A. Domijan Jr, R.K. Matavalam, A. Montenegro, W.S. Wilcox, Y.S. Joo, L. Delforn, J.R. Diaz, L. Davis and J.D. Agostini, “Effects of norman weather conditions on interuptions in distribution systems,†International journal of power & energy systems, vol.25, no.1, pp.54-61, 2005.

      [17] Y. Zhou, A. Pahwa, and S.S. Yang, “Modeling weather-related failures of overhead distribution lines,†IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.21, no.4, pp.1683-1690, 2006.

      [18] D. K. Mohanta, P.K. Sadhu and R. Chakrabarti, “Fuzzy reliability evaluation of captive power plant maintenance scheduling incorporating uncertain forced outage rate and load representation,†Electric Power Systems Research, vol.72, no.1, pp.73-84, 2004.

      [19] [19] J. S. Simonoff, C.E. Restrepo and R. Zimmerman, “Riskâ€Management and Riskâ€Analysisâ€Based Decision Tools for Attacks on Electric Power,†Risk Analysis, vol. 27, no.3, pp.547-570, 2007.

      [20] P. McCullagh and J. A. Nelder, Generalized Linear Models, Monograph on Statistics and Applied Probability, 1989.

      [21] P. McCullagh, “Generalized linear models,†European Journal of Operational Research, vol.16, no.3, pp.285-292, 1984.

      [22] T.J. Hastie, and R.J. Tibshirani, Generalized additive models, John Wiley & Sons, 1990.

      [23] A.L. Oberg and D. W. Mahoney, “Linear mixed effects models,†Methods in Molecular Biology™, Humana Press, vol. 404, pp.213-234, 2007.

      [24] “Linear Mixed-Effects Models,†https://in.mathworks.com/help/stats/linear-mixed-effects-models.html?s_tid=gn_loc_drop

      [25] H.M. Blalock, “Correlated independent variables: The problem of multicollinearity,†Social Forces, vol.42, no.2, pp.233-237, 1963.

      [26] C. Robinson and P.E. Schumacker, “Interaction effects: centering, variance inflation factor, and interpretation issues,†Multiple Linear Regression Viewpoints, vol.35, no.1, pp.6-11, 2009.

      [27] R. Wilcox, “Kolmogorov–smirnov test,†Encyclopedia of biostatistics, 2005.

      [28] I.T. Young, “Proof without prejudice: use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for the analysis of histograms from flow systems and other sources,†Journal of Histochemistry & Cytochemistry, vol.25, no.7, pp.935-941, 1977.

  • Downloads

  • How to Cite

    Sivamani, S., Ragu, V., Lee, M., Cho, K., Cho, S., Shin, C., Park, J., & Cho, Y. (2019). A Comparative Study of Best-Fit Algorithms for the Risk Assessment of Weather Conditions in Electricity Based on Iot. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 8(1.4), 597-605. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v8i1.4.26316